The two Certificate of Entitlement (COE) bidding exercises in June 2025 showed significant movements for Category A and Category B premiums in Singapore. Cat A and Cat B (for small and large cars respectively) both saw a decline in the first June tender, followed by a rebound in the second tender:
- Category A (Cars ≤1600cc/130hp or EV ≤110kW): Fell to $96,999 in the 1st bidding, then rose to $98,124 in the 2nd bidding. This was a +$1,125 (+1.2%) increase in the later exercise.
- Category B (Cars >1600cc or >130hp, or EV >110kW): Dropped to $113,000 in the 1st bidding, then surged to $116,670 in the 2nd bidding. This was a +$3,670 (+3.2%) jump, reversing the earlier drop.
Overall, the second June 2025 bidding reversed the downward trend seen in early June. Both Cat A and B premiums ended higher by mid-June, though they remained slightly below their recent May 2025 peaks. For context, Cat A had briefly crossed the $100k mark in May, and Cat B neared $120k before easing. The June results indicate continued volatility in COE prices, with premiums still at historically elevated levels – albeit off the record highs seen in late 2023 (Cat B hit ~$150k and Cat A ~$106k in Oct 2023).
Category A vs Category B – 1st & 2nd Bidding Comparison
| Category | June 2025 – 1st Bidding | June 2025 – 2nd Bidding | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cat A (Cars ≤1600cc / 130bhp or EV ≤110kW) | $96,999 | $98,124 | +$1,125 (+1.2%) |
| Cat B (Cars >1600cc / 130bhp or EV >110kW) | $113,000 | $116,670 | +$3,670 (+3.2%) |
As shown above, Cat A premiums rose marginally in the second round, while Cat B premiums jumped more sharply. In early June’s first tender, Cat A had slipped below the psychological $100,000 threshold to $96,999, and Cat B fell to $113,000 – continuing a downward correction from May. By the second June tender, demand rebounded and pushed prices higher again (though Cat A remained under $100k). This mid-month surge in COE prices for cars effectively reversed the downward trend seen earlier this month.
Several factors influenced bidding behavior between the two exercises:
- Buyer Sentiment Shift
- Market Anticipation
- External Events (e.g. car expo effect)
In summary, Category B’s premium swung more dramatically than Category A’s in June. This is evident from the change in bids and oversubscription rate.
Premium Trends in 2025: From Q1 Peaks to Mid-Year Volatility
To put June’s results in perspective, COE price trends over the past six months show:
- Early 2025 Correction
- Recovery and Climb (Mar–May 2025)
- Late May Ease & June Volatility
In essence, COE premiums in 2025 have been extremely high but somewhat erratic, influenced by policy changes and buying sentiment. The trend from Q1 to mid-year is a sawtooth pattern: a big correction in Feb, steady rises through Apr/May, then another correction in June. Notably, each dip has been followed by a recovery, indicating that underlying demand for cars remains robust whenever prices ease even slightly.
Impact of LTA Quota Policies on COE Prices
One of the biggest factors affecting COE prices is the supply of COEs (quota) released by Singapore’s Land Transport Authority (LTA). In 2025, LTA has taken steps to increase the quota supply. Key moves include:
- Quota Increase in May–July 2025: 6.4% more COEs than Feb–Apr.
- Bonus COE Injections: An additional 1,099 COEs were injected.
- Category Adjustments & Policy Fine-tuning
- Quota Distribution and Bidding Dynamics
Effect: These LTA policy actions have begun to show results. The across-the-board premium drop in June’s 1st bidding was a sign that increased supply and cooling measures are having an impact.
Market Signals and Bidding Behavior Insights
- Bidding Psychology: Lower premiums in 1st June round led to more aggressive bids in 2nd.
- Oversubscription Rate: Cat B jumped from ~1.23× to ~1.48× in June.
- Buyer Profile Shifts: EV interest broadening demand pool.
- Macroeconomic Factors: Stable economy, high interest rates, inflation.
- Seasonal & Event-driven Demand: Car expos and policy rumors influence timing.
COE Premium Outlook and Forecast for the Next Few Months
Expectations:
- Slight Easing Bias, But No Crashes
- Continued High Demand
- Potential Downside Factors: Recession, regulation, COE renewals.
- Upside Risks: New car launches, speculative bidding, future quota squeeze.
Advice for Car Buyers:
- Budget for volatility.
- Cat A may hover $90k–$105k.
- Cat B likely in $110k–$125k range.
Conclusion
The June 2025 COE bidding results offered a microcosm of Singapore’s current car market dynamics – a delicate balance between increasing supply and persistent demand. Category A and Category B premiums showed both promise and pressure: promise, in that prices retreated from record highs thanks to larger quotas and cooler heads prevailing; pressure, in that any lull in demand was short-lived and premiums remain above $90k and $110k respectively.
Recent LTA policies have begun to tame premiums. Coupled with market signals, these led to observable dips in the 1st June bidding. However, the rebound in the 2nd June exercise reminds all stakeholders that structural demand remains strong.
Looking ahead, car buyers should stay informed on quota announcements and COE results. The price trajectory will likely be a gradual settling down from the highs of 2023-24, with plenty of oscillation along the way. By combining expert analysis of trends and policies with real-time market data, buyers in Singapore can better navigate the COE landscape.
